Executive Summary
Ongoing structural changes in market fundamentals—driven largely by shifts in trade policy—have led to a pronounced divergence in performance, not only within freight transportation dynamics but across broader economic activity as well.
In the wider economy, preliminary estimates indicate that U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, signaling a potential turning point following a period of sustained growth. Despite this contraction, labor market conditions remained resilient, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April. Retail activity saw a notable uptick, driven primarily by a surge in motor vehicle sales ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price increases. Retail sales rose 0.7% MoM, marking the strongest monthly gain since January 2023. Simultaneously, the U.S. trade deficit widened sharply, reflecting a front-loading of import activity in response to changing trade regulations.
Within the transportation sector, truckload market conditions deteriorated further in April, despite the approach of the peak summer shipping season. Weak demand continued to delay the rationalization of excess capacity, exerting additional downward pressure on rates. Conversely, rail transportation continued to capture market share as elevated import volumes and evolving inventory strategies favored the cost efficiency of intermodal services. The maritime sector also displayed ongoing strength. According to Descartes’ May 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. containerized imports in April increased by 1.2% MoM and 9.1% YoY, reflecting continued momentum in ocean freight activity.
Industry Overview
April Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | -0.3 q |
| Fuel Prices | -10.9 q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -52.1 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | 0.5 p |
| Cass Freight Index** | 1.5 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -5.3 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | -2.0 q |
*Report released on 4/22/2025
**Report released on 4/14/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted as tariff uncertainty further weighed on demand and output. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Spot rates remained flat while contract rates are showing early signs of growth. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
A slowdown in shipping activity has led to a weaker outlook heading into the peak summer shipping season. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Tender rejections continue to indicate tighter market conditions but excess supply still remains. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
An increase in new entries outpaced carrier exits resulting in the for-hire carrier population expanding in April. Continue reading...
Fuel Prices
Global demand concerns amidst rising supply levels led to further declines in fuel prices. Continue reading...
Dry Van
Declining demand continued to push down overall rates for dry vans. Continue reading...
Reefer
Early produce activity led to higher volumes and a slight increase in rates in the refrigerated sector. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Despite lower demand compared to March, average spot rates continued to climb in April for flatbed carriers. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Both intermodal and carload volumes continued to register growth in April, while overall rates remained static. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Trump requiring that truckers speak and read English | FreightWaves
- U.S.–China tariff surge triggers steep import decline and supply chain slowdown | Logistics Management
- Class 8 Truck Orders Fall 52% During April | Transport Topics