Executive Summary
With the third quarter of 2025 now concluded, the outlook for both the transportation industry and the broader U.S. economy remains largely unchanged, characterized by persistent uncertainty. While recent developments within the transportation sector have raised the possibility of progress toward correcting supply-side imbalances, the timing and limited data availability have made it too early to assess their effectiveness. Compounding the uncertainty, the ongoing federal government shutdown that began at the end of September has delayed the release of key economic indicators, leaving much of the current macroeconomic picture incomplete. Nevertheless, the data available prior to the shutdown painted a mixed yet relatively stable backdrop, with signs of modest strengthening in certain sectors.
Among the latest economic data, the final estimate for second-quarter real GDP was revised upward by 0.5 percentage points to an annualized rate of 3.8%, reversing the 0.6% contraction recorded in the first quarter. The upward revision was largely driven by a pullback in imports combined with resilient consumer spending and robust investment in artificial intelligence-related business initiatives, which together contributed 2.2 percentage points to overall GDP growth. As a result, real GDP growth for the first half of 2025 averaged an annualized rate of 1.6%, slightly stronger than previously estimated. Other hard data releases reflected similar signs of relative stability, including a modest increase in industrial production in August — supported by gains in the automotive sector — and higher retail sales, largely driven by inflationary pricing. The absence of the September jobs report leaves a key gap in the labor market assessment. However, private-sector data from ADP indicated further weakening, with an estimated loss of 32,000 jobs following a downward-revised 3,000 decline in August. Likewise, the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings essentially flat, while an increase in unemployed workers pushed the openings-to-unemployed ratio below 1.0 for the first time since July.
In the transportation sector, market conditions remained largely subdued in September. Truckload rates edged slightly higher despite ongoing demand weakness, while excess capacity continued to constrain pricing power. However, a new FMCSA rule restricting non-domiciled CDL renewals could accelerate capacity attrition in the coming months (see Truckload Capacity Outlook). Rail activity softened as both intermodal and carload traffic trended below prior-year levels following a modest rebound in August. However, contract rates showed signs of upward repricing heading into the fall bid season. In maritime trade, containerized imports reversed the temporary rebound seen in mid-summer, falling sharply in September. According to Descartes’ October 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. container imports totaled just over 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 8.4% MoM and 8.4% YoY, yet still representing the third-strongest September on record. Cumulatively, TEU volumes through the first nine months of 2025 were up 1.9% YoY, but forward-looking indicators, including the FreightWaves SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index, showed global maritime bookings tracking 15% below last year’s levels. This divergence underscores a shifting dynamic in which the U.S. appears to be playing a less dominant role in global supply chains.
Industry Overview
September Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +3.9 p |
| Fuel Prices | +5.4 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -43.9 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage (Aug 2025) * | +0.4 p |
| Cass Freight Index | +2.6 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -5.4 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +2.2 p |
*Report released on 9/23/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a slower rate in September compared to August, driven by an uptick in production despite further softening in demand. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average spot rates registered slightly higher in September, while contract rates continue to trend flat. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Overall demand continued to weaken in September, driven by ongoing elevated inventory levels and lost market share to the rail sector. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Tender rejections retreated following the Labor Day holiday but remained stable and continue to indicate tightening market conditions. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The for-hire carrier population declined sharply in September as net revocations surged while new entrants fell. Continue reading...
Fuel
Average diesel prices registered little change compared to August. Continue reading...
By Mode
Dry Van
Dry van conditions improved marginally, as average spot rates registered slightly higher while demand improved. Continue reading...
Reefer
The reefer sector remains the most stable of the three major mode types, propping up produce and raising demand for temperature-sensitive commodities amidst cooling weather. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Flatbed conditions improved slightly in September following months of continuous deterioration. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Average rail rates improved modestly despite weakening volumes for both the intermodal and carload segments. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- FMCSA issues emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CLDs | FreightWaves
- Class 8 Truck Orders Slide 44% as Tariffs Strain | Transport Topics
- Expected U.S.-bound import declines remain intact, notes Port Tracker report | Logistics Management