Executive Summary
The August data provided a mixed picture, offering little clarity on the outlook for either the broader economy or the transportation sector. Some indicators signaled continued resilience, while others suggested further weakness ahead.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the weaker-than-expected jobs report overshadowed otherwise stable conditions. Industrial indicators were uneven: manufacturing output was flat MoM in July but remained 1.4% higher YoY. Durable goods orders fell 1.3% MoM, largely due to a sharp decline in aircraft orders; excluding transportation equipment, new orders rose 0.6% MoM. Housing starts increased 5.2% MoM, while construction spending slipped 0.1% MoM. On the consumer side, inflation-adjusted spending rose 0.3% MoM in July, the largest gain in four months, and held steady at 2.1% YoY, consistent with prior months. Inflation, however, remained sticky as the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, its fastest pace in five months. With inflation firming and labor markets cooling, the Federal Reserve faces a policy inflection point ahead of its September meeting in determining which of these is a bigger risk. Market expectations are leaning heavily toward easing, with economists broadly anticipating a 25-bps cut to the federal funds rate, while the CME FedWatch Tool indicated futures traders are anticipating a 93.7% probability of at least a 25 bps reduction and a 6.3% probability of a larger 50 bps move.
In the transportation sector, truckload conditions deteriorated further as spot rates declined under the weight of persistent excess capacity, despite a slight pre-holiday boost to volumes. Rail activity showed modest improvement, with both intermodal and carload segments registering monthly and annual gains. Nevertheless, pricing remained near historic lows, constrained by competition with the weakened truckload market. In maritime trade, containerized imports continued to benefit from tariff-driven pull-forward activity. According to Descartes’ September 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. container imports totaled more than 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August — the second-highest monthly total this year. Imports were down 3.9% MoM but 1.6% higher YoY. However, forward-looking indicators were less encouraging, as bookings tracked by the FreightWaves SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index (IOTI.USA) fell 12% MoM and 14% YoY in August, suggesting that import momentum may continue to soften into Q4 absent a more permanent U.S.-China trade agreement.
Industry Overview
August Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +1.7 p |
| Fuel Prices | +1.2 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -19.5 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -0.1 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +2.4 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -6.9 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +0.4 p |
*Report released on 8/19/2025
**Report released on 8/14/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a slower rate compared to July, driven by upticks in demand, while output weakened further. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Seasonal slowdowns in shipping activity led to further declines in average spot rates, while average contract rates continued their flat trend. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Pre-Labor Day shipping activity propped up overall freight demand for the month, following softer volumes to start the month. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Tender rejections rebounded ahead of Labor Day after dropping to their lowest levels since April earlier in the month. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The for-hire carrier population expanded moderately as capacity exits continued to slow, while new entrants have stabilized. Continue reading...
Fuel
Average fuel prices declined as concerns of excess global supply outweigh any potential near-term demand shocks. Continue reading...
By Mode
Dry Van
Elevated imports over the past two months balanced out ongoing softening in domestic manufacturing volumes, keeping dry van rates steady in August. Continue reading...
Reefer
Seasonal shifts in harvesting to the north helped prop up the refrigerated sector in August, offsetting the muted output in produce volumes this year and keeping rates relatively flat compared to July. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Marginal boosts in industrial-related shipping activity were insufficient to prevent further deterioration in flatbed conditions, due to ongoing weakness in residential construction and agricultural commodities. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Rail volumes rebounded slightly in August following declines in July, while rates remain historically low. Continue reading...