July 2025 Industry Update

Executive Summary

With the first half of 2025 now concluded, the outlook for both the transportation industry and the broader economy remains as ambiguous as it was six months ago. A mix of forces—some supportive, others adverse—continues to shape the landscape as businesses and consumers contend with evolving trade policies and macroeconomic headwinds.

On the economic front, the labor market, which has been instrumental in sustaining growth and supporting consumer activity in recent months, continues to post respectable gains, although early signs of softening have begun to surface. In June, nonfarm payrolls added a net 142,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. However, initial unemployment claims reached their highest level since August 2023, and job openings climbed to a six-month high of 7.8 million in May. Real consumer spending declined 0.3% MoM in May, following a modest 0.1% increase in April, while YoY growth stood at 2.2%—its slowest pace in over a year. Meanwhile, housing data was mixed: housing starts and new home sales fell sharply, while existing home sales rose. Additionally, manufacturing output was marginally positive in May, propped up largely by strength in the automotive sector.

In the transportation sector, freight volumes saw modest MoM improvement in June but remained broadly weak relative to historical norms. Truckload rates were flat despite entering what is typically the peak of the summer shipping season. Nonetheless, the continued rise in tender rejections relative to 2024 levels points to ongoing capacity contraction, suggesting that tighter conditions may be emerging due to persistent carrier attrition. In rail, intermodal volumes—which have been a primary source of strength in recent months—turned negative in June, marking their first YoY decline in nearly two years. In contrast, carload volumes have registered YoY gains for four consecutive months, a notable shift from the prevailing trend over the past two years.

Finally, containerized import volumes also showed signs of life. According to Descartes' July 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. imports rose to 2,217,675 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June, a 1.8% MoM increase from May but still 3.5% below June 2024 levels. Imports from China edged up 0.4% MoM to 639,300 TEUs yet remained down significantly—by 28.3%—compared to the same period last year.

Industry Overview

June Key Figures (YoY)

*Report released on 6/24/2025
**Report released on 6/12/2025

Main Takeaways

Economy

The ISM® manufacturing index improved marginally but remained in contraction as new orders remained weak while production increased. Continue reading...

Truckload Rates

Average spot rates registered minimal change on a monthly basis and dropped back in line with previous year’s levels. Continue reading...

Truckload Demand

Freight volumes were slightly stronger compared to May but still remain well below typical peak summer shipping season levels. Continue reading...

Truckload Supply

Rejection rates continued to trend above previous year’s levels despite weaker demand, indicating market conditions are getting tighter.  Continue reading...

Truckload Capacity Outlook

The for-hire carrier population contracted in June, driven by a surge in net revocations, while equipment orders fell to a 15-year low. Continue reading...

Fuel

Average diesel prices increased in June as demand increased from the summer driving season while escalating geopolitical tensions heightened supply concerns. Continue reading...
 

By Mode 

Dry Van

The dry van sector registered moderate gains in both spot rates and demand in June but were well below the historical average for the month. Continue reading...

Reefer

Reefer activity declined despite peak produce season in full bloom, causing average rates to register lower in June. Continue reading...

Flatbed

The flatbed industry continued to perform the worst of the three major modes in June as rates fell slightly while volumes weakened considerably. Continue reading...

Intermodal

Rail activity remained mixed as intermodal volumes were tempered by broader uncertainties impacting global supply chains and consumer spending. Carload volumes continued to record gains from steady, though relatively subdued, support from the industrial sector. Continue reading...

Further Reading

• Class 8 truck orders hit 15-year low | Transport Topics
• Drewry: No “lasting impact” from tariff break as ocean rates fall again | Logistics Management
• English-only proficiency now a clearer requirement for employment in trucking industry | The Trucker