Executive Summary
Broader economic signals remain mixed, as the ongoing divergence between hard and soft data continues to obscure a clear view of the U.S. economy's trajectory. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding tariffs has further weighed on the transportation sector, where truckload conditions showed modest improvement and rail momentum began to decelerate.
Economic indicators in May continued to offer a conflicting picture of underlying strength, albeit with a shift in dynamics. Hard data, which had generally trended positively earlier in the year, began to soften, while previously pessimistic soft data showed tentative signs of stabilization, though overall sentiment remained negative. The most notable weakness in hard data came from the May employment report, which showed headline payroll growth of 139,000 jobs—a lackluster figure that was further diminished by downward revisions of 95,000 jobs to the March and April estimates. Moreover, over 90% of the job gains were concentrated in health care and leisure services, while goods-producing industries and government posted net losses.
Additional signs of softening included a modest 0.1% MoM increase in consumer spending in April—down from 0.7% in March—stagnant industrial production, a sharp decline in new manufacturing orders, persistent weakness in nonresidential construction for the fourth consecutive month and flat housing starts. In contrast, soft data provided some encouraging signals: small business sentiment improved, consumer sentiment stabilized in May and saw a notable uptick in preliminary June readings, and equity markets posted their strongest monthly performance since 2023, fueled by optimism that tariff threats might not materialize and broadly positive Q1 corporate earnings.
In the transportation sector, tariff-related uncertainty continued to limit sustainable growth. In the truckload market, minor rate gains were driven primarily by capacity disruptions during the CVSA International Roadcheck and the Memorial Day holiday rather than by an increase in freight demand. Meanwhile, rail volumes continued to expand, albeit at a reduced pace compared to earlier in the year, due in part to declining international trade activity. According to Descartes' June 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. containerized imports fell sharply in May—down 9.7% MoM and 7.2% YoY—to their lowest monthly level since March 2024.
Industry Overview
May Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | 0.4 p |
| Fuel Prices | -8.5 q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -44.0 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -0.4 q |
| Cass Freight Index | 0.6 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -0.4 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | 1.4 p |
*Report released on 5/20/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate in May compared to April as demand and output remained weak amidst declining inventory levels. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average spot rates turned positive for the first time in 3 months in May, though the increase wasn’t driven by traditional seasonal factors. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Despite registering slightly higher compared to April, the fallout from tariff uncertainty continued to hinder sustainable freight demand growth in May. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Multiple capacity disruptions throughout the month led to rejection rates trending higher in May. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The carrier population expanded for the second consecutive month as new entrants continue to post strong gains despite weak truckload conditions. Continue reading...
Fuel Prices
Average fuel prices declined for the third consecutive month driven by excess global supply concerns. Continue reading...
Dry Van
Average fuel prices declined for the third consecutive month driven by excess global supply concerns. Continue reading...
Reefer
The refrigerated sector performed the best of the three major modes as early produce demand led to higher average spot rates. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Despite softening flatbed shipping activity, average flatbed rates registered slightly higher in May. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Rail activity registered moderate increases as carload volumes showed strength while intermodal traffic expanded at a much slower rate. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Truck Orders See Surprise Sequential Rise, Still Trail 2024 | Transport Topics
- U.S.-bound imports expected to see tariff pause gains, followed by declines to end 2025, notes Port Tracker | Logistics Management
- Trucking industry reacts to abolishment of California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule | The Trucker