Executive Summary
Heading into the final month of 2025, both the transportation industry and the broader economy appear positioned to close out the year much as they began. Within the transportation sector, market conditions remain depressed, as continued declines in freight volumes are readily absorbed by persistent excess capacity, placing sustained downward pressure on rates. At the macroeconomic level, growth remains modest and increasingly overshadowed by elevated uncertainty, limiting visibility into the trajectory for 2026.
With the longest government shutdown in U.S. history now behind us, the delayed release of economic data is gradually restoring insight into overall economic conditions. However, the staggered nature of these releases continues to constrain the development of reliable forward-looking forecasts. Among the most consequential data points released was the September jobs report, which showed a net gain of 119,000 jobs, the strongest monthly increase since April 2025 and well above consensus expectations. Despite the headline job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level since October 2021. In response to emerging softness in labor market conditions, the Federal Reserve opted to cut the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year, bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75% following similar cuts in September and November. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited labor market risks as outweighing inflation concerns, despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, with the September 2025 Consumer Price Index rising 3.0% YoY — the largest annual increase in 16 months.
Across the transportation landscape, truckload market conditions remain challenged despite seasonal dynamics and holiday-related disruptions. Weak demand coupled with structural overcapacity continues to erode carriers’ pricing power. While heightened enforcement actions targeting non-compliant CDL holders may incrementally tighten supply, ongoing contraction in domestic manufacturing activity and subdued import volumes remain the primary impediments to a meaningful truckload recovery. Rail activity showed mixed results in November following weakness in the prior two months, as modest gains in carload traffic were offset by continued deterioration in intermodal volumes. In the maritime sector, containerized import volumes declined further in November, largely in line with typical seasonal patterns associated with the shorter month and Thanksgiving-related slowdowns. According to Descartes’ December 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. imports totaled just under 2.2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in November, down 5.4% MoM and 7.8% YoY. The report attributed much of the decline to an 11.3% reduction in shipments originating from China, underscoring the ongoing impact of the U.S.–China trade conflict on global shipping flows.
Industry Overview
December Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +3.9 p |
| Fuel Prices | +8.5 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -47.0 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -1.8 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +3.0 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -7.8 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | -0.2 q |
*Report released on 11/18/2025
**Report released on 11/13/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace in November, driven by weakness in new orders and employment. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average spot rates fell in November despite a late-month rally ahead of Thanksgiving. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
A boost in retail inventory shipments ahead of the Black Friday shopping event was not enough to drive growth in truckload volumes as overall demand continues to soften. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Truckload capacity continued to tighten as tender rejections remained elevated amidst weaker demand. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The for-hire carrier population contracted sharply in November, driven by a lower number of new entrants. Continue reading...
Fuel
Average fuel prices swelled in November, matching their highest level since May 2024. Continue reading...
By Mode
Dry Van
Dry van rates registered little change in November despite a slowdown in shipping activity. Continue reading...
Reefer
Average rates in the refrigerated sector continued to climb amidst lower demand. Continue reading...
Flatbed
The flatbed sector continued to struggle in November as both rates and demand declined. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Rail performance was mixed in November as carload volumes increased while intermodal shipments fell. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Class 8 November orders drop as carriers prioritize survival over growth | Commercial Carrier Journal
- DOT removes 3,000 CDL training providers from registry | Overdrive
- English-language crackdown exposes how cheap labor and CDL fraud are remaking trucking | FreightWaves