Executive Summary
With the third quarter now fully underway, July’s data offered little to bolster optimism regarding either the broader economy or an anticipated recovery in the transportation sector.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the month’s most notable development came from a markedly weak U.S. labor market report. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), payroll employment grew by just 73,000 in July, while combined downward revisions to May and June reduced prior estimates by 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the number of individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more climbed to its highest level since December 2021. Consumer spending momentum also slowed, with inflation-adjusted expenditures rising only 0.06% MoM in June and up 2.1% YoY — the smallest annual gain in 16 months. Offsetting these softer indicators, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 GDP showed a robust 3.0% annualized gain, rebounding sharply from the 0.5% contraction in Q1. Imports contributed 5.2 percentage points to growth, while a drawdown in private inventories subtracted 3.2 points. Consumer spending added less than 1.0%, with business investment and government outlays contributing modestly.
In the transportation sector, July freight volumes weakened and remained below historical averages, while truckload spot rates slipped into negative territory after holding mostly flat during the traditional summer peak. Tender rejections, however, remained above prior-year levels, underscoring the impact of ongoing capacity attrition. Rail activity was mixed but improved compared to June, with intermodal volumes rebounding and carload growth persisting on an annual basis. Despite these volume gains, both contract and spot rail rates continued to trend well below prior-year levels and long-term norms.
Internationally, containerized imports posted a sharp seasonal surge. According to Descartes’ August 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. container import volumes reached 2,621,910 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, up 18.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY. The total was just 550 TEUs shy of the all-time monthly record set in May 2022 and marked the largest monthly increase since March 2021. The report attributed the spike to strong seasonal demand and accelerated shipments ahead of potential changes to trade policy. Among top origins, China recorded the largest gain, with imports rising 44.4% MoM (+283,775 TEUs) to account for 35.2% of total U.S. import share, up from 28.8% in June.
Industry Overview
July Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | 0.5 p |
| Fuel Prices | -0.8 q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -1.9 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | 1.8 p |
| Cass Freight Index** | 1.9 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -2.4 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | 2.6 p |
*Report released on 7/22/2025
**Report released on 7/14/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
The ISM® manufacturing index contracted at a faster rate as demand remains weak leading to further contraction in employment. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average spot rates retreated in July as peak summer shipping season came to a close and excess capacity remains in the market. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Freight activity remained weak due to rising inventories and shifting modal preference by shippers. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Rejection rates continued to trend above previous year’s levels despite weaker demand, indicating that market conditions continue to tighten. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
The for-hire carrier population registered moderate expansion in July as net revocations plummeted while new entrant levels stabilized. Continue reading...
Fuel
Average diesel prices continued to rise as historically low global inventory levels pushed futures markets higher. Continue reading...
By Mode
Dry Van
Dry van rates remained flat compared to June despite a sharp increase in demand. Continue reading...
Reefer
The refrigerated sector registered the strongest performance of the three major modes as rates increased moderately amidst a boom in demand. Continue reading...
Flatbed
The flatbed conditions continued to soften further as housing activity weakened, leading to a decline in both rates and demand levels. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Intermodal volumes rebounded from a weak June while carload traffic continued to grow as rates deteriorated further. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Class 8 Truck Orders Slip Nearly 2% Year Over Year in July | Transport Topics
- Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern reach $85 billion merger deal | FreightWaves
- EPA seeks to reverse 2009 emissions framework | Trucking Dive