February 2026 Industry Update

Executive Summary

The past few months have served as a stress test for current freight market dynamics, as the holiday shipping season — complicated by recurring winter weather events and culminating in the most significant winter storm since 2021 — tested both capacity and pricing resilience. The outcome reflects a meaningful shift in underlying fundamentals, with today’s market operating materially differently than it did at this time last year.

Although much of January was relatively free of major disruptions, the weather events that did occur generated outsized volatility, driving tender rejections sharply higher and pushing spot rates to their strongest levels of the current downcycle. Prior to the onset of Winter Storm Fern, market conditions had already begun to normalize by mid-month, and the swift retreat from holiday-driven peaks reaffirmed that structural imbalances remain tilted toward excess supply. However, the market’s increasingly pronounced reaction to external shocks signals that ongoing supply-side attrition is gradually restoring leverage to carriers — particularly in the spot market — and incrementally shifting pricing power away from shippers. Even so, while many of the necessary supply conditions are aligning, a durable recovery will ultimately require a sustained improvement in demand.

Looking ahead, as winter weather risks subside and seasonal disruptions fade, freight conditions are expected to stabilize and track more closely with historical seasonal patterns — albeit from a meaningfully higher floor than pre-holiday levels. Although a definitive demand catalyst has yet to emerge, several potential upside factors remain in play, most notably greater clarity around trade policy and tariff implementation. Additional support could stem from further monetary easing, continued resilience in consumer spending, higher tax refunds or targeted fiscal stimulus ahead of the midterm election cycle. However, absent a clear and sustained demand inflection, near-term performance is likely to remain predominantly seasonally driven. 

Industry Overview

January Key Figures (YoY)

*Report released on 1/20/2026
**Report released on 1/19/2026

Main Takeaways

U.S. Economy

• Strong gains in new orders and production pushed the domestic manufacturing sector into expansion territory for the first time in a year.
• Consumer remained resilient in January, with spending elevated compared to the previous year but disproportionately driven by higher-income households.
• Final Q3 2025 U.S. GDP estimates reflected robust growth, driven by strong consumer spending and business investment, with preliminary Q4 2025 GDP forecasts indicating annualized growth of 3.7%. Continue reading...

Truckload Rates

• Average spot rates climbed to their highest levels in over three years as Winter Storm Fern delayed conditions from normalizing.
• Contract rates ticked higher for the fourth straight month, driven by upward pressure from surging spot rates, while the gap between the two narrowed to its lowest level since 2022. Continue reading...

Truckload Demand

• Following a strong December, contract volumes appeared more volatile to start the year, retreating throughout much of the month before a pre-storm pull forward in activity led to a boost at the end of the month.
• Spot volumes continued to surge in January, driven by capacity disruptions from the holidays early in the month and Winter Storm Fern late in the month. Continue reading...

Truckload Supply

• Tender rejections surged past their holiday peaks at the end of January after starting to stabilize midway through the month and reaching their highest level since April 2022.
• Following the sharp contraction in December, declines in the for-hire population continued in January but at a much more moderate rate as excess capacity continues to move closer to balance. Continue reading...

By Mode

• Dry Van

• Reefer

• Flatbed

• Intermodal