September 2026 Industry Update

Executive Summary

As summer winds down, the freight market is shifting from rapid acceleration to a more measured, sustainable pace of growth. Manufacturing activity remains firmly in expansion territory, consumer spending continues to support the broader economy and inventory levels remain lean across much of the supply chain. Although freight demand has moderated from the elevated levels seen earlier this summer, the underlying drivers of goods movement remain largely intact, supporting a constructive outlook for transportation activity through the remainder of the year.

At the same time, the broader operating environment remains complex. Businesses continue to navigate inflationary pressures, tariff uncertainty, elevated transportation costs and geopolitical risks, while housing activity and certain consumer-facing sectors remain soft. Economic growth remains uneven across industries, but continued investment in manufacturing, technology infrastructure and industrial capacity is helping offset weakness elsewhere in the economy.

Within truckload, capacity constraints continue to play an outsized role in shaping market conditions. Demand has softened, and spot rates have eased from their summer highs, but available capacity remains historically tight, and carriers continue to retain meaningful pricing leverage. Current conditions further support the view that the truckload cycle remains driven more by constrained supply than by a surge in demand, as rates continue to be propped up even as shipment volumes normalize.

Intermodal and rail sectors have been key beneficiaries of this shifting dynamic. Growing cost advantages relative to truckload, resilient import activity and steady inventory replenishment have continued to support volume growth across rail networks. As shippers place greater emphasis on cost efficiency and capacity stability, the intermodal segment is likely to continue capturing more market share, particularly on long-haul lanes that, until recently, were hauled exclusively over the road.

Industry Overview

August Key Figures (YoY)

*Report released on 8/18/2026
**Report released on 8/17/2026

Main Takeaways

U.S. Economy

• Manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month, supported by stronger production levels, employment growth and strong demand. 
• Residential construction activity remains volatile, with housing starts weakening considerably while permits were more stable but still weak historically.
• Consumer spending rebounded in August as discretionary services remained the primary growth driver, despite evidence of shifting buying behaviors as customers start seeking lower-cost alternatives and value. Continue reading...

Truckload Rates

• Spot rates declined sharply from their summer highs in August as market conditions began to normalize during the post-summer slowdown.
• Contract rates continued to climb to catch up with peak-season spot-rate gains, returning to trend at a premium relative to transactional market pricing. Continue reading...

Truckload Demand

• Truckload demand softened in August as accepted volumes remained subdued and freight growth increasingly shifted toward rail and intermodal transportation.
• Manufacturing strength and lean inventories continued to support freight activity, helping maintain a stable floor for truckload demand despite moderating volume growth. Continue reading...

Truckload Supply

• Truckload capacity loosened throughout August as tender rejection rates declined, but market conditions remained significantly tighter than historical norms.
• Carrier utilization remained elevated and available capacity stayed constrained, continuing to support a carrier-favorable market despite recent easing trends. Continue reading...

By Mode

• Dry Van

• Reefer

• Flatbed

• Intermodal