Executive Summary
Market conditions briefly returned to more typical seasonal patterns in late April and early May. However, elevated tender rejections and an improved ability to pass through rising fuel costs continued to shift a greater share of freight into the spot market. This dynamic established a materially higher rate floor heading into the peak summer shipping period, in a truckload environment that remains highly susceptible to external shocks — of which May delivered several.
As expected, CVSA Roadcheck Week served as a significant catalyst in the ongoing capacity‑tightening cycle and further underscored the supply‑driven nature of the current market reset. Unlike other external events or holidays that primarily influence demand, Roadcheck Week provides a clearer signal of supply conditions. This year’s inspection period produced the tightest load‑to‑truck ratios ever recorded for a Roadcheck Week, along with the largest weekly increase in average spot rates.
While the supply‑side impact of Blitz Week was the most immediate, its demand‑side effects are likely to extend over the coming months as backlogged freight works its way through routing guides. These deferred volumes — combined with seasonal increases in produce and beverage demand — are poised to exert additional upward pressure on market pricing, particularly if capacity continues to contract. With a higher rate floor already established entering June, spot rates have the potential to approach or surpass their 2021 record levels, especially toward the month‑end as shippers accelerate outbound volumes ahead of the quarter close and the Fourth of July holiday.
Industry Overview
May Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change | Seq% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +45.2 p | +8.2 p |
| Fuel Prices | +60.0 p | +1.8 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | +100.8 p | +6.9 p |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | +3.5 p | -3.4 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +5.6 p | +3.2 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -4.5 q | +0.4 p |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +3.5 p | +2.6 p |
*Report released on 5/19/2026
**Report released on 5/14/2026
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- Manufacturing indicators showed broad based expansion, with multiple subindexes strengthening across major industries.
- Consumer spending and retail activity continued to grow, supported by solid card spending trends and strong nonstore retail performance.
- Housing and construction data remained mixed, with single family softness offset by strength in multi family and permitting activity. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Spot and contract rates climbed sharply across equipment types, with several indexes posting their strongest gains in years.
- The spread between contract and spot rates tightened significantly as spot pricing accelerated. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Contract volumes softened slightly while spot activity regained momentum and continued its long streak of annual growth.
- Import volumes and containerized freight strengthened, supporting overall freight demand. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- Tender rejections rose meaningfully, reflecting tightening capacity and heightened sensitivity to disruptions.
- Employment and equipment data showed mixed signals, with driver payrolls declining but Class 8 orders remaining strong.
- Utilization levels and market indices indicated continued pressure on available capacity across modes. Continue reading...