Executive Summary
As 2025 came to a close, the transportation industry once again featured a defining theme of the current cycle: the growing disconnect between expectations and reality. Freight demand remained structurally weak, trending below prior-year levels and reinforcing consensus expectations for another subdued holiday peak season. Instead, the market delivered a markedly different outcome. Weather-related disruptions layered on top of typical seasonal pressures drove a sharp rise in tender rejections, ignited spot market activity and generated meaningful upward pressure on rates — producing a peak season that was far more volatile and dynamic than anticipated.
This volatility further confirmed that ongoing capacity attrition has materially increased the market’s sensitivity to external shocks as it inches closer to equilibrium. While many of the supply-side prerequisites for a sustained recovery are now in place, the absence of a durable demand catalyst continues to delay a full-cycle turn. Historically, every truckload upcycle has required not just tighter supply, but a clear acceleration in freight demand — an element that remains elusive.
Looking ahead, freight volumes are likely to retrace toward pre-holiday levels in the near term, consistent with Q1’s position as the softest demand period of the year. Beyond the seasonal reset, the trajectory of demand recovery will hinge largely on clarity around trade and tariff policy, as well as broader macroeconomic implications. In 2026, additional headwinds could emerge from a cooling labor market and moderating consumer spending, particularly if tariff-related cost pressures sustain elevated inflation. With inflation already above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the scope for further monetary easing appears limited, potentially restraining capital investment and delaying the manufacturing-led demand rebound necessary to restore full balance to the freight market.
Industry Overview
January Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +8.0 p |
| Fuel Prices | +3.5 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | +17.0 p |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -0.2 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +2.2 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -7.6 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | -1.2 q |
*Report released on 12/23/2025
**Report released on 12/16/2025
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a faster pace in December while demand indicators improved slightly but still remain in contraction territory.
- Holiday spending increased 4.7% YoY as overall card spending grew on both a monthly and yearly basis in December. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Average spot rates surged to their highest levels in more than two years and outpaced gains in contract rates to narrow the contract-to-spot spread to its lowest level since the start of the downturn. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Spot market activity surged while contract volumes benefitted from seasonal influences but overall remain weak.
- Elevated inventory levels throughout the year contracted sharply in December as shippers moved product further down the supply chain closer to customers and reduced year-end tax burdens.
- Import bookings continued trending lower in December, registering 15% below 2024 levels and 9% lower than 2023 levels. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- The for-hire truckload carrier population recorded its largest magnitude decline since January as authority revocations surged while new entrants remained stable.
- Equipment orders rebounded following months of weak ordering activity as carriers look to replace aging fleets and lock in current pricing before expected increases in 2027.
- Payroll employment in the trucking sector remained flat in December bringing the net change in preliminary estimates to a decline of 3,500 jobs in the sector for all of 2025. Continue reading...