Executive Summary
Heading into the final two months of the year, the transportation industry and broader economy remain on unsteady footing, navigating an environment characterized by persistent uncertainty. Within the transportation sector, ongoing volatility in tariff and trade policy continues to restrain demand, while intensified political and regulatory enforcement has fueled expectations that supply-side imbalances may begin to correct. In the broader economy, the federal government shutdown has significantly constrained access to key economic indicators, complicating policymaking and reinforcing a more cautious near-term outlook.
In the absence of federal data releases, stakeholders have increasingly relied on smaller, private-sector datasets. However, the more limited sample sizes reduce confidence in drawing conclusions about the overall economic landscape. The most prominent of these sources, the ADP National Employment Report (NER), indicated private employers added 42,000 payroll jobs in October following a revised loss of 28,000 in September. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at its October 29 meeting, lowering the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, the lowest since December 2023. The Fed cited slowing job creation, rising unemployment and broader corporate layoffs as justification for easing policy despite inflation remaining above the 2% target. September’s Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year over year, marking the largest annual increase in 16 months and the fifth consecutive month of accelerating inflation.
Within the transportation industry, enforcement actions targeting undocumented drivers and newly imposed restrictions on the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled CDLs briefly tightened capacity and contributed to upward movement in spot rates. However, persistent contraction in domestic manufacturing and weakening import flows continued to weigh heavily on freight demand. Rail activity softened for the second consecutive month — during what is typically one of the strongest periods of the year — as both intermodal and carload volumes trended below prior-year levels. Still, intermodal contract pricing showed signs of upward momentum in the back half of October after falling sharply earlier in the month, likely reflecting early adjustments tied to the fall bid cycle. In the maritime sector, containerized import volumes eased slightly in October following a sharp contraction in September. According to Descartes’ November 2025 Global Shipping Report, U.S. imports totaled just over 2.3 million TEUs, down 0.1% month over month and 7.5% year over year. The report notes that this marks only the second time in a decade that October imports have declined on a monthly basis, underscoring ongoing importer caution amid shifting trade conditions and reflecting likely frontloading earlier in the year as firms prepared for evolving tariff timelines.
Industry Overview
November Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +3.4 p |
| Fuel Prices | +2.6 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -19.9 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage (Aug 2025) * | +0.8 p |
| Cass Freight Index | +3.0 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -7.8 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | -0.2 q |
*Report released on 10/21/2025
Main Takeaways
Economy
Domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate in October compared to September, driven by softening in production and inventories, while new orders improved slightly. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
Average rates rose across both spot and contract markets as spot rates outperformed typical seasonal expectations and contract rates recorded their largest monthly gains in nearly two years. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
Upstream freight indicators continued to deteriorate in October, resulting in further softening in overall demand levels. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
Tender rejections rose slightly but remained relatively stable despite capacity disruptions from increased regulatory enforcement. Continue reading...
Truckload Capacity Outlook
New entrants narrowly outpaced net revocations in October, resulting in a modest expansion in the for-hire population, but are nearing balance. Continue reading...
Fuel
Average fuel prices fell sharply in October as weakening global demand, amidst excess supply concerns, continue to mount. Continue reading...
By Mode
Dry Van
Dry van rates continued to trend higher in October despite weakening demand levels. Continue reading...
Reefer
Average reefer rates increased further in October, driven by shifting seasonal harvesting cycles and strong produce imports. Continue reading...
Flatbed
Flatbed rates improved moderately in October despite further deterioration in freight volumes. Continue reading...
Intermodal
Overall rail activity continued to soften in October, driven by weakness in both intermodal and carload traffic, while rates remained stable. Continue reading...
Further Reading
- Preliminary October Class 8 truck net orders see annual declines | Logistics Management
- U.S. enforcement actions to remove more trucks than ELD mandate | Truck News
- UPS Stuns Wall Street With Strong Profit and 34,000 Job Cuts | Transport Topics