Back to November 2025 Industry Update
November 2025 Industry Update: Intermodal
Overall rail activity continued to soften in October, driven by weakness in both intermodal and carload traffic, while rates remained stable.
Spot Rates
Key Points
- The FreightWaves SONAR Intermodal Rates Index (INTRM.USA), which measures the average weekly all-in door-to-door spot rate for 53’ dry vans across most origin-destination pairings, decreased slightly in October, dropping 0.7% MoM, or $0.01, to $1.43.
- Compared to October 2024, average intermodal spot rates were down 4.0% YoY and were 27.6% below the 5-year average.
Volumes
Key Points
- Total loaded volumes for 53’ containers for all domestic markets, measured by the FreightWaves SONAR Loaded Outbound Rail Volume Index (ORAIL53L.USA), increased 3.4% MoM in October, increasing from September’s average of 19,019.14 to 19,660.18.
- Average loaded domestic rail volumes for 53’ containers in October were up slightly, 0.1% YoY, compared to October 2024 and were 3.5% above the 5-year average.
Intermodal Summary
The rail sector weakened in October following several months of mixed performance and intermittent rebounds as overall activity slowed. According to the latest Rail Industry Overview from the Association of American Railroads (AAR), intermodal shipments — which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade — declined 3.0% year over year, marking the steepest annual drop since August 2023 and the third decline in the past five months. Historically, October ranks among the strongest periods for intermodal activity, with average weekly volumes consistently placing in the top three months of the year in 20 of the past 25 years. However, this year’s performance fell short of that benchmark, as domestic intermodal originations averaged 273,747 units per week in October, already surpassed by four other months in 2025. Despite the softening in recent months, YTD intermodal volumes through October totaled 11.94 million units, up 2.8% compared to the same period last year and the highest level recorded since 2021.
Total U.S. carload traffic also eased modestly, declining 0.03% year over year in October, with 11 of the 20 primary carload commodity groups posting annual decreases. Average weekly carload originations totaled 225,547 units during the month, which was slightly above the YTD weekly average. Even so, YTD carload volumes remain 1.9% higher than the same period in 2024, with 13 of the 20 carload categories still showing annual gains.
Despite weakening volumes in recent months, intermodal pricing has remained broadly stable. Spot rates hovered around $1.45 per mile for most of the year, while contract rates have remained range-bound between $1.50 and $1.75 since early 2024. Average spot rates edged slightly higher in October compared to September but remain too low to indicate any meaningful capacity tightening for contractual shippers. On the contract side, the FreightWaves SONAR Intermodal Contract Average Base Rate Per Mile Index (IMCRPM1.USA) — an aggregation of intermodal contract rates excluding fuel surcharges — averaged $1.62 per mile in September, unchanged from both August and year-ago levels. Preliminary October data showed a brief decline to $1.48 in the first half of the month before rebounding sharply to $1.67 by month-end, likely reflecting early repricing activity ahead of the fall bid season. Despite this volatility, intermodal transportation continues to maintain a competitive cost advantage, with contract rates operating at roughly a 20% discount relative to comparable dry van truckload rates.