Back to November 2025 Industry Update
November 2025 Industry Update: Truckload Demand
Upstream freight indicators continued to deteriorate in October, resulting in further softening in overall demand levels.
Key Points
- The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI.USA), a measure of contracted tender volumes across all modes, registered a 4.4% decline MoM in October, dropping from 9,936.00 at the end of September to 9,492.54.
- The monthly average of daily tender volumes in October declined 3.6% MoM compared to September, falling from 9,962.31 to 9,606.81.
- Compared to October 2024, average daily tender volumes were down 17.3% YoY and were 26.3% lower than the 5-year average.
- Spot market activity softened in October, dropping 0.8% MoM compared to September but remained 14.1% above YoY levels.
- The Cass Transportation Index Report, a measure of U.S. freight activity that tracks shipment volumes and expenditures across all domestic transportation modes, registered lower across both shipments and expenditures in October on a monthly basis by 4.3% and 3.9%, respectively, as well as on an annual basis by 7.8% and 0.2%, respectively.
Summary
After stabilizing briefly in early September following the pre-Labor Day surge, outbound tender volumes turned negative late in the month, a trend that persisted throughout October. On a monthly basis, shipping activity declined 3.6% MoM, the second largest MoM decline so far this year, and underperformed the historical seasonal average decrease of 0.6% MoM typically observed during the month. Since turning negative in mid-September, total tender volumes have fallen 9.6% through the end of October, underscoring the market’s inability to sustain momentum following the late-summer demand boost.
The continued deterioration and pronounced underperformance in freight volumes during October widened the annual deficit relative to 2024 levels to its largest gap since turning negative in December of last year. October marked the 11th consecutive month of YoY declines and the second-longest stretch of annual contraction since the 20-month downturn that began in early 2022. On a 2-year stack, average tender volumes continued to trend lower for the eighth straight month in October, registering roughly 15% lower and the widest negative margin relative to 2023 levels YTD. By equipment type, dry van and flatbed activity weakened, down 4.3% and 2.6% MoM, respectively, while refrigerated volumes rose modestly by 1.8% MoM. On a YoY basis, average dry van tender volumes were 18.7% below October 2024 levels, followed by refrigerated volumes, which declined 13.8% YoY. Flatbed volumes, though still trending positive annually, fell to their narrowest margin of growth since March, registering just 0.3% higher YoY.
According to FTR’s latest outlook, total truck loadings for 2025 are now expected to grow by +0.5% YoY, down slightly from the previous forecast of +0.6% YoY, while the 2026 outlook remains unchanged at +0.4% YoY. The downward revision was primarily attributed to softer expectations for food loadings, which influenced both total and dry van projections. Dry van loadings are now forecasted to decline -0.4% YoY in 2025, compared to the previous -0.3% YoY estimate. Refrigerated loadings were similarly adjusted downward to +0.6% YoY growth from +0.7% YoY previously, while flatbed loadings were revised slightly lower to +2.2% YoY growth from +2.3% YoY.
Why It Matters
Despite increased volatility in spot rates and elevated uncertainty surrounding carrier availability, overall freight volumes remained subdued in October, continuing to prevent the truckload market from returning to balance. Historically, a dip in demand at the onset of the fourth quarter is not uncommon and does not typically serve as a leading indicator for the remainder of the period. However, with current volume deficits versus both year-ago levels and two-year stacked comparisons widening to their largest margins in October, it has become increasingly difficult to discern how much of a stabilizing effect seasonality will provide in the months ahead.
Looking forward, industry sentiment remains divided on the near-term direction of freight volumes, with both bullish and bearish scenarios presenting credible arguments. On one hand, those anticipating continued softness and a muted holiday peak season relative to pre-pandemic norms cite the persistent contraction in the domestic manufacturing sector as the primary headwind suppressing truckload demand — a trend previously discussed in the September 2025 Industry Update. Additionally, the ongoing decline in ocean bookings and expectations for weak import activity due to early-year inventory pull-forwards ahead of tariff deadlines continue to weigh heavily on demand. According to the FreightWaves SONAR Inbound Ocean TEUs Index (IOTI), U.S. container import bookings have fallen 26.9% from their early-July peak through October, positioning 11.8% below year-ago levels and 10.1% lower on a two-year stack.
Conversely, those forecasting an incremental rebound in freight activity through year-end point to continued progress in inventory normalization and evolving supply chain strategies among shippers. The October release of the Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) marked the first contraction in inventory levels since July 2024, suggesting a shift from accumulation toward leaner operations. Persistently high cost metrics for inventory and warehousing —hovering near pandemic-era levels—have prompted a gradual migration from “just-in-case” (JIC) to “just-in-time” (JIT) inventory management strategies, which typically require more responsive transportation networks and shorter replenishment cycles. The report postulates that the continued expansion in warehousing costs is likely driven by goods moving down the supply chain to retailers ahead of the holiday shopping season, as warehousing real estate gets more expensive the closer it is to the consumer. Meanwhile, the robust expansion in inventory costs may be reflective of concerns that consumer spending in Q4 may be restrained by high prices. Coincidentally, a portion of those higher prices is likely a result of firms passing on the elevated storage costs in an effort to boost earnings. In that scenario, the LMI notes that retail sales may be more disentangled from shipping volumes than normal, meaning that even if sales are up over the holidays, like they are expected to be, it may not necessarily translate to a significant boost in the freight market.
