Back to November 2025 Industry Update
November 2025 Industry Update: Truckload Capacity Outlook
New entrants narrowly outpaced net revocations in October, resulting in a modest expansion in the for-hire population, but are nearing balance.
Key Points
- Total net revocations, a measure of total authority rejections minus reinstatements, declined by 736 carriers MoM in October, dropping from 5,606 in September to 4,870 in October, according to FTR’s preliminary analysis of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) data.
- Per FTR, the number of newly authorized for-hire trucking firms rose in October, with the FMCSA authorizing just over 5,000 new carriers compared to the 4,473 new authorizations in September.
- Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders estimates ranged from 24,300 units, as reported by FTR, and 24,500 units per ACT Research in October, with both estimates lower YoY by 22.3% and 19.9%, respectively.
Summary
Following a sharp contraction in September, the for-hire trucking population stabilized in October, registering a modest net increase of 132 carriers. October’s near-neutral change represented the most balanced month for carrier population growth since March, when the total fell by just 11 carriers. Since the onset of the pandemic, only two other months have shown a closer equilibrium between new entrants and revocations (October 2024 at -12 and March 2025 at -11). According to FMCSA data dating back to 1999, only one month has reflected a smaller differential than March, which occurred in December 2018, reflecting a decline of just two carriers.
The sharp swing from September’s contraction to October’s stabilization was primarily driven by a steep drop in net revocations, which fell by nearly 750 carriers MoM. While still a notable figure, the September spike was largely attributed to a calendar anomaly, as the FMCSA processes the majority of revocations on Mondays, and the month contained five Mondays. On an annual basis, October’s net revocations were nearly unchanged, down by just 36 carriers, while the 4,870 revocations less reinstatements aligned closely with the 2025 YTD monthly average of 4,755, indicating continued steadying in carrier exits. According to FTR’s analysis of FMCSA data, as of November 1, the U.S. for-hire carrier base remained roughly 89,000 carriers — or 34.5% — above pre-pandemic levels recorded in February 2020, underscoring the degree of capacity expansion still embedded in the market.
On the equipment side, preliminary N.A. Class 8 net order estimates increased for the second consecutive month in October, rising approximately 18% MoM per ACT Research and 19% per FTR’s reporting. Despite the sequential improvement, order activity continues to trend below prior-year levels, marking the tenth consecutive month of annual declines. FTR reported total orders of 24,300 units in October — well below the 10-year average of 31,198 units for the month — and placing cumulative net orders for the 2026 build cycle, which began in September, roughly 32% below the comparable period last year.
Why It Matters
The ongoing stabilization and slight uptick in the for-hire carrier population in October appear to contradict the prevailing narrative that capacity is exiting the market at an accelerated rate. However, as noted in previous updates, fluctuations in active operating authorities do not necessarily equate to meaningful expansions or contractions in overall trucking capacity or the available driver pool. Many newly authorized carriers are often individuals who previously operated as leased drivers or company employees. The continued stream of layoffs, bankruptcies, and closures among larger fleets over the past two years has likely encouraged some displaced drivers to obtain their own authority, helping to keep new entrant levels elevated above pre-pandemic norms.
Given that truckload supply remains highly fluid — with drivers and carriers continuously entering and exiting the market for a variety of economic and regulatory reasons — the pace of attrition has not meaningfully changed, leaving the industry firmly in a state of oversupply. However, recent regulatory developments are expected to materially reshape capacity dynamics over the coming quarters. The FMCSA’s newly enacted restrictions on the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses (CDLs), coupled with renewed enforcement of English Language Proficiency (ELP) requirements, are anticipated to exert considerable downward pressure on the available driver pool. While early indications of these effects were observed in October, the full impact is expected to compound in the months ahead, amplified by heightened self-enforcement among shippers, brokers and insurers seeking to mitigate compliance and liability risks. Government data from 2021 shows that approximately 18% of the U.S. driver population is foreign-born, many of whom operate within smaller fleets or as independent owner-operators, segments that are likely to feel the brunt of these regulatory changes. Larger carriers, which dominate the contract market, are comparatively insulated due to established compliance frameworks and language proficiency standards, leaving the spot market disproportionately exposed.
Despite these impending structural constraints — which analysts expect could ultimately rival or exceed the 3 – 5% capacity reduction associated with the implementation of the Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandate beginning in 2017 — any meaningful rebalancing of the market will also require a recovery in freight demand. Insights from recent third-quarter earnings calls among major publicly traded carriers echoed the expectation of a significant contraction in current excess capacity, though many executives cautioned that persistent weakness in demand will temper both the pace and magnitude of those supply-side adjustments.