Back to November 2025 Industry Update
November 2025 Industry Update: Truckload Supply
Tender rejections rose slightly but remained relatively stable despite capacity disruptions from increased regulatory enforcement.
Key Points
- The FreightWaves SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA), which measures relative capacity based on carriers’ willingness to accept freight volumes under contract, rose 54 basis points (bps) MoM, rising from 5.63% at the end of September to 6.17% in October.
- The monthly average of daily tender rejections increased by 25 bps MoM in October, increasing from 5.63% in September to 5.88% in October.
- On an annual basis, average daily tender rejections remained 62 bps higher YoY but were 6.16% below the 5-year average.
- After sequential declines and a mixed performance in September, the Morgan Stanley Truckload Freight Index (MSTLFI) increased sequentially throughout October, performing approximately in line with seasonality in the first half of the month before outperforming in the second half.
Summary
Following a period of moderation and relative stability in September, tender rejections were slightly more volatile in October, characterized by steady gains in the first half of the month before retreating and leveling off in the latter half. Despite the softening toward the month's end, early-month increases were sufficient to lift the overall October average above September’s level, marking the second consecutive month of MoM growth. October also represented the 22nd consecutive month of YoY increases in the FreightWaves OTRI, indicating that market conditions continue to tighten even as freight demand remains subdued. Although annual comparisons remain elevated, the gap has steadily narrowed over the past eight months, with October posting the smallest YoY differential since September 2024, signaling a slow convergence toward normalization.
Relative to historical patterns, the 25-basis-point MoM increase in tender rejections during October outperformed the typical seasonal decline of approximately 72 bps. By equipment type, refrigerated rejections rose 90 bps MoM, dry van rejections increased 20 bps and flatbed rejections were unchanged. On a YoY basis, refrigerated rejections registered the strongest performance, climbing 1.7% above October 2024 levels, followed by dry van and flatbed rejections, which rose 0.7% and 0.6% YoY, respectively.
The latest MSTLFI report reflected similar dynamics, indicating that market performance shifted from near-seasonal parity in early October to modest outperformance later in the month, driven entirely by the supply component. Specifically, supply conditions posted their strongest relative outperformance since February, declining ~20 bps versus a typical seasonal increase of ~660 bps, while demand improved ~590 bps compared to its historical average gain of ~440 bps for the month.
Why It Matters
The bifurcation of tender rejections between the first and second halves of October further underscored that tightening conditions have heightened the market’s susceptibility to external disruptions, driven primarily by ongoing capacity exits. Despite the continued erosion in freight volumes — which under typical market conditions would prompt a corresponding decline in rejection rates — the OTRI has remained relatively stable in recent months. This persistence suggests that carrier capacity is contracting at a pace roughly equivalent to, if not faster than, the rate of demand decline, thereby preventing a meaningful softening in rejection activity.
The market’s growing vulnerability to short-term disruptions was partially reflected in the 86-bps increase in rejection rates during the first half of October, coinciding with federal enforcement actions targeting immigrant and non-domiciled drivers by ICE. While the rise was notable given the 5.3% decline in tender volumes over the same period, the reaction was relatively muted compared to the volatility observed in spot rate movements. Tender rejections have remained rangebound between 5 – 6% for much of 2025. However, the sharp increase in spot rates in October, absent a corresponding breakout in OTRI, suggests the contract market still remains somewhat insulated from spot market fluctuations. Historically, sustained non-seasonal increases in spot rates are typically preceded by an uptick in rejections; however, recent activity reflects the reverse, implying a short-term dislocation rather than a structural shift. With the spot market comprising just 15 – 20% of total domestic freight volume, broader support from the contract sector will be necessary for these trends to materialize into a lasting market rebalancing.
Looking ahead, movements in outbound tender rejections will remain a key barometer as the industry enters the holiday shipping season. A central question is whether rejection rates will break out in the final months of the year, and to what extent. Last December, rejection rates peaked near 10% in the days preceding Christmas before normalizing to the 7 – 9% range in January. With current rejection levels still elevated relative to last year and the potential for accelerated capacity attrition stemming from ongoing regulatory and political pressures, the probability of a late-year shift in market balance toward carriers is increasing, though the magnitude and duration of such a shift remain uncertain.