Back to November 2025 Industry Update
November 2025 Industry Update: Truckload Rates
Average rates rose across both spot and contract markets as spot rates outperformed typical seasonal expectations and contract rates recorded their largest monthly gains in nearly two years.
Spot Rates
Key Points
- The national average spot rate, excluding fuel, increased 1.9% MoM, or roughly $0.04, to $1.85 in October.
- Average linehaul rates were up 3.2% YoY compared to October 2024 and remained 2.0% below the long-term (LT) average.
Contract Rates
Key Points
- Initially reported average contract rates, exclusive of fuel, rose 1.1% MoM, or just over $0.02, in October.
- On an annual basis, initially reported average contract linehaul rates were 1.5% higher YoY compared to October 2024.
- The contract-to-spot spread registered just over $0.01 lower MoM in October, dropping from $0.417 to $0.406.
Summary
National average spot rates extended their upward momentum in October, rising for the second consecutive month following the nearly $0.02 MoM increase in September. The back-to-back gains marked the first instance of consecutive monthly increases so far in 2025. On a seasonal basis, the $0.04 MoM rise in October significantly outperformed the historical seasonal trend, which typically reflects an average decline of approximately $0.02 during the month. October’s advance also pushed average spot rates to their highest level since January, signaling a modest strengthening in market conditions heading into the fourth quarter.
Weekly movements tracked by the DAT 7-Day Average Spot Linehaul Rate Index reflected broad stability with steady upward progress throughout most of the month. The index showed rates jumping nearly $0.03 WoW at the start of October, followed by moderate gains totaling roughly $0.01 over the next two weeks. Rates rose again by just over $0.01 in the third week before easing by $0.02 in the final week as the market normalized.
In the contract market, initially reported average linehaul rates recorded their largest monthly increase since November 2023, reversing the slight decline observed in September. Although contract rates excluding fuel have remained largely range-bound for the past two years, October marked the fourth consecutive month of YoY growth — only the eighth such occurrence in the last 38 months. With spot rate gains outpacing those in the contract market, the contract-to-spot spread narrowed slightly from just under $0.42 in September to just under $0.41 in October, reflecting incremental progress toward a more balanced rate environment.
Why It Matters
The resurgence in spot rates during October was somewhat unexpected, given the absence of any meaningful improvement in the market’s underlying fundamentals. Freight demand continued to soften as the industry searches for a definitive bottom, while the ongoing stream of carrier bankruptcies that have characterized much of 2025 showed no notable acceleration. From a seasonal standpoint, October is typically a stable or slightly softer month compared to September, making the broad-based rate increases all the more surprising. Nonetheless, average spot rates advanced steadily throughout the month, reaching their highest non-holiday level since mid-January, suggesting that short-term supply disruptions — rather than demand strength — were likely the primary driver.
Regionally, the sharpest increases in spot rates appeared concentrated in the Midwest and Great Lakes markets, with Chicago serving as the focal point. The timing aligned closely with Operation Midway Blitz, a targeted enforcement initiative launched by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on September 9 to apprehend undocumented immigrants with criminal records, and the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) September 26 ruling restricting the issuance and renewal of non-domiciled CDLs. According to reporting from The Serbian Times, these actions led to multiple arrests of Serbian nationals employed as commercial drivers across Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Texas. Beyond federal enforcement, the FMCSA ruling has prompted a form of “industry self-enforcement,” with shippers, brokers and insurers actively tightening compliance to limit liability exposure, creating localized disruptions to available capacity.
In its most recent outlook, FTR maintained its 2025 forecast for total truckload rates (excluding fuel) at +1.2% YoY but revised its 2026 forecast higher to +1.8% YoY, up from the prior estimate of +1.4% YoY. The upward revision was primarily driven by improved spot rate expectations, with projections rising from +1.3% YoY to +2.1% YoY. Equipment-specific forecasts were similarly strengthened, led by flatbed rates now expected to grow +1.5% YoY (up from +0.8% YoY), refrigerated rates +2.6% YoY (up from +2.2% YoY) and dry van rates +1.6% YoY (up from +1.3% YoY).
Concurrently, the DAT Dry Van Spot Market Cycle Indicator (DVSMCI) reflected incremental improvement, declining 1.0% MoM in October — the second consecutive monthly decline — signaling movement toward more neutral market conditions. According to Dr. Jason Miller of Michigan State University, sustained readings above 15% denote a bearish environment, while readings below 10% are consistent with a more bullish trend.
