Executive Summary
The volatility stemming from late-January and February winter storms was further amplified in March by geopolitical instability and a sharp rise in fuel costs, significantly inflating rates and distorting monthly comparisons. The rapid increase in diesel prices pushed all-in rates to multi-year highs, with contract rates reaching levels last seen in February 2023 and spot rates approaching peaks from July 2022. However, while contract pricing reflected these fuel increases more immediately through surcharges, spot rates typically lag rapid spikes in diesel prices, with much of the upside materializing in the latter half of the month — contributing to the apparent softness in linehaul rates that does not fully reflect underlying market conditions.
A more accurate view of the truckload environment is seen in the sustained strength of outbound tender rejection rates, which remain near early-2022 levels despite typical seasonal expectations for moderation. Ongoing supply-side contraction continues to tighten market conditions, and while carrier exits have stabilized in recent months, rising fuel costs could reintroduce financial strain and accelerate capacity attrition. Notably, this tightening has occurred against a backdrop of only modest demand growth, which remains historically subdued. While improving manufacturing activity has supported freight volumes, other demand indicators remain soft, setting the stage for heightened volatility and potential rate pressure as the market enters peak produce season alongside increased construction and home improvement activity.
Nevertheless, the direction and durability of a recovery in demand remains vulnerable to potential deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. Although recent economic signals have been generally constructive, inflationary pressure from rising energy costs and further labor market cooling present meaningful risks that could quickly stall momentum and temper further gains in freight activity.
Industry Overview
March Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change | Seq% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +26.6 p | +4.6 p |
| Fuel Prices | +37.3 p | +32.2 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | +132.5 p | -19.5 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | +2.1 p | +2.6 p |
| Cass Freight Index** | +2.2 p | +0.2 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -7.2 q | +10.4 p |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +2.1 p | +5.1 p |
*Report released on 3/24/2026
**Report released on 3/16/2026
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- Domestic manufacturing activity continued to expand in March, though at a slower rate from February, supported by further growth in production and heightened supply chain pressure, while demand wavered and prices continued to rise.
- Surging gas prices led to sharp gains in household spending in March, with high-income household spending continuing to significantly outpace the other income groups. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Average spot rates hit their highest level in nearly four years, largely attributable to further outsized gains in the flatbed sector.
- The national average price of diesel registered its largest ever monthly gain on record as three of the 11-largest week-to-week increases in diesel prices were reported in March, with the largest of all time, 96 cents a gallon, occurring during the week of March 9. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Contract volumes rose steadily in March but continue to trend below 2024 and 2025 averages for the month.
- U.S. containerized imports rebounded from February’s decline and remain well above pre-pandemic averages for March. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- First quarter for-hire authority revocations registered their lowest quarterly total since Q4 2021, as the carrier population registered moderately higher by 430 carriers.
- Despite declining from their February highs, preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders remain considerably higher than 2025 levels, further indicating improving freight fundamentals. Continue reading...