March 2026 Industry Update

Executive Summary

Despite more than a month having passed, the effects of Winter Storm Fern continue to reverberate across the truckload market, suggesting conditions may be closer to an inflection point than previously expected. Tender rejection rates remain near their highest levels in almost four years, while spot rates have climbed to their strongest levels since April 2022. This is an unusual development for February, which historically represents the seasonal low for freight demand and typically sees weather-related disruptions fade quickly amid ample capacity.

Freight volumes improved modestly from January, though the gains appear partly attributable to delayed shipments working through the network following storm-related disruptions, as overall demand still trails both prior-year and two-year comparisons. That said, recent strength in manufacturing activity and industrial production — most evident in the flatbed sector — suggests the market may be entering the early stages of a broader upcycle. However, the durability of any recovery remains highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions that continue to send mixed signals.

Looking ahead, the near-term path for rates and demand remains uncertain, while the supply side is somewhat easier to anticipate. Spot linehaul rates are likely to normalize through the remainder of the quarter, but all-in pricing could remain elevated if oil markets react further to U.S. military action involving Iran and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Even with some normalization, spot rates are poised to enter the second quarter from a materially higher floor than a year ago, setting a stronger baseline ahead of seasonal demand. Sustainable demand improvement, however, still hinges on continued strength in manufacturing and industrial output, while capacity exits are expected to persist but at a slower pace, as a few months of firmer conditions are unlikely to offset the financial strain accumulated over the past several years. If recent months are any indication, the market may be entering a period of greater volatility than experienced at any point during the current downturn.

Industry Overview

February Key Figures (YoY)

*Report released on 2/24/2026
**Report released on 2/17/2026

Main Takeaways

U.S. Economy

• The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® registered a second consecutive month of expansion in February, driven by continued strength in new orders and production, while prices surged near historic highs.
• Consumer spending continued to rise in February, driven primarily by high-income households, while low-income family spending outpaced after-tax wage growth for the first time in nearly four years.
• The growth of the U.S. economy slowed in Q4 2025 due to sharply lower government spending, while consumer spending on services increased and spending on goods declined. Continue reading...

Truckload Rates

• Contracted freight volumes rose slightly in February but remain weak compared to previous years, while spot volumes continue to gain considerable market share.
• U.S. containerized imports declined sharply and fell below 2025 levels but continue to trend in line with typical seasonal patterns. Continue reading...

Truckload Demand

• Contracted freight volumes rose slightly in February but remain weak compared to previous years, while spot volumes continue to gain considerable market share.
• U.S. containerized imports declined sharply and fell below 2025 levels but continue to trend in line with typical seasonal patterns. Continue reading...

Truckload Supply

• The for-hire carrier population rose in February as capacity exits declined, while new entrants remained stable.
• Preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders surged in February, a sign that carriers may be anticipating further improvements in freight fundamentals. Continue reading...

By Mode

• Dry Van

• Reefer

• Flatbed

• Intermodal