May 2026 Industry Update

Executive Summary

Market conditions appeared to return to more typical seasonal patterns in April following the fuel-driven volatility experienced throughout March. Although diesel prices remain significantly elevated, weekly price fluctuations have largely stabilized amid increased diplomatic efforts surrounding the Iran conflict. The post-Easter seasonal transition helped ease capacity tightness, with dry van linehaul spot rates retreating toward levels seen before the March disruptions. Despite this moderation in capacity conditions, spot freight has continued to gain market share, while contracted tender rejections remain well above levels observed over the past four years.

Looking ahead, the relatively stable conditions observed in April are unlikely to persist into May as the industry enters the peak summer shipping period. This year, May is expected to be particularly volatile due to a concentrated three-week stretch beginning with CVSA International Roadcheck, followed by the pre-Memorial Day shipping push and the seasonal acceleration in produce, beverage, and construction-related freight activity. Together, these factors are expected to tighten capacity considerably across the truckload market.

The impact from Roadcheck Week — commonly referred to as DOT Blitz Week — is also expected to be more pronounced this year. In addition to the typical focus on vehicle maintenance and safety inspections, this year’s focus will target cargo securement and ELD tampering. An expected increase in enforcement surrounding English language proficiency and non-domiciled CDL requirements could further reduce available capacity, both voluntarily and involuntarily. With more than 10,000 vehicles and 3,300 drivers placed out of service during last year’s event, the additional regulatory scrutiny this year could exacerbate already constrained market conditions and push spot rates materially higher, potentially surpassing the roughly $0.10 per mile WoW increase observed during last year’s Roadcheck period.

Beyond May, market conditions are likely to remain volatile, with elevated rates persisting through the Fourth of July before gradually normalizing toward more typical seasonal patterns. However, uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of the current environment remains elevated, particularly if fuel prices remain high for an extended period and broader macroeconomic risks continue to build.
 

Industry Overview

April Key Figures (YoY)

*Report released on 4/21/2026
**Report released on 4/14/2026

Main Takeaways

U.S. Economy

• Domestic manufacturing activity continued to expand amidst mixed demand, surging input costs and increased pressure on supply chains.
• Consumer spending remains resilient despite higher gas prices, with services spending continuing to dominate spending on goods.
• Residential construction and sales of new homes were positive in March, though the outlook remains weak as future permits softened and mortgage rates moved higher. Continue reading...

Truckload Rates

• Average spot rates moved higher in April following a slight dip in March, slightly outpacing gains in the contract market.
• Average fuel prices continued to climb to their highest level in three years and are nearly $2.00 per gallon higher compared to the same time last year. Continue reading...

Truckload Demand

• Overall demand levels remained relatively unchanged compared to March, while annual comparisons have become easier with the Liberation Tariffs going into place this time last year.
• Import volumes have largely normalized and remain below 2025 levels but are still elevated compared to pre-pandemic averages. Continue reading...

Truckload Supply

• Tender rejections weakened from March but are still trending at their highest levels in over four years.
• The for-hire carrier population registered its largest increase since September 2022 as new entrants rose while revocations fell. Continue reading...

By Mode

• Dry Van

• Reefer

• Flatbed

• Intermodal