Executive Summary
As we move into the second half of 2026, the freight market continues to be defined by a theme that few expected at the start of the year: the goods economy remains remarkably resilient despite a backdrop of persistent uncertainty. Manufacturing activity has accelerated to its strongest pace in more than four years, consumer spending continues to hold up better than sentiment indicators suggest and freight demand across rail, intermodal and truckload markets remain supported by lean inventories and ongoing investment in AI, semiconductor and data center infrastructure.
At the same time, the path ahead is far from straightforward. Businesses continue to manage elevated transportation costs, tariff uncertainty, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and a labor market that is showing signs of slowing. July's payroll decline and downward revisions to prior employment data served as reminders that economic momentum remains uneven beneath the surface. While broad recession concerns remain subdued, many companies continue to approach hiring, capital spending and inventory decisions with caution.
For freight markets, tighter capacity levels remain the dominant headline in the truckload sector. Though having cooled from their Fourth of July peak, spot rates continue to outperform historical seasonal patterns, adding further upward pressure on contract rates that is likely to carry over into next year. While shipment growth has been inconsistent across regions and modes, transportation spending continues to rise as the pricing power pendulum remains heavily in favor of carriers.
Intermodal and rail markets have emerged as particular bright spots. Record or near-record volumes, growing market share on long-haul lanes and strong import activity have provided meaningful support to the broader freight economy. Continued front-loading of imports, combined with customer inventories that remain historically low, suggests goods movement demand should remain constructive throughout the remainder of the year, even if some seasonal volatility returns.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Manufacturing order backlogs are growing, customer inventories remain lean, freight networks are operating efficiently and investment tied to AI infrastructure continues to create demand throughout industrial supply chains. However, inflation, energy prices, labor market softness, tariff policy and geopolitical developments will remain important variables to watch closely as we move toward year-end planning cycles.
Industry Overview
July Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change | Seq% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +46.8 p | +0.3 p |
| Fuel Prices | +31.1 p | -1.4 q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | +66.2 p | -29.6 q |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -0.1 q | -0.1 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +5.5 p | -0.9 q |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -4.1 q | -3.1 q |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +11.2 p | +2.2 p |
*Report released on 7/21/2026
**Report released on 7/17/2026
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace since 2022, supported by stronger production, new orders, backlogs, exports and hiring activity.
- Housing starts rebounded to their highest levels in nearly a year, though the sector remains weak from a historical perspective.
- Consumer spending softened in July compared to June in the absence of seasonal promotions and World Cup-related activity but remains resilient. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Spot rate growth moderated in July, but truckload pricing remains substantially higher than both year-ago and long-term average levels.
- Contract rates continued to strengthen and returned to near parity with spot pricing as shippers readjust routing guides due to tighter market conditions. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Freight demand eased in July as both contracted and spot market volumes declined from June's elevated levels, though activity remains generally stronger than last year's freight recession environment.
- Strong import volumes, healthy inventory conditions and a positive manufacturing backdrop continue to support expectations for modest truckload demand growth through year-end. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- Truckload capacity loosened slightly in July, but carrier availability remains considerably tighter than a year ago as rejection rates and utilization levels stay elevated.
- Limited driver growth and strong Class 8 order backlogs suggest supply expansion will remain constrained through the balance of 2026. Continue reading...