Executive Summary
The truckload market closed the third quarter with greater stability, as conditions changed little between August and September, aside from a brief period of Labor Day-related volatility at the start of the month. However, despite signs that underlying fundamentals are moving closer to equilibrium, the market remains on relatively unstable footing.
Arguably the biggest development in September was the surge in diesel prices to record highs, as the Iran War further strained already tight global energy supplies. The immediate effects have been significant across transportation and the broader economy, and risks increase the longer elevated energy prices persist. In truckload, higher fuel costs have pressured rates both directly, through higher all-in pricing, and indirectly by tightening capacity as smaller operators with greater exposure to fuel volatility are forced out of the market. The broader economic effects are similar: consumers face higher costs at the pump, while manufacturers contend with rising input expenses that ultimately pass through the supply chain.
Beyond fuel-related pressures, further softening in demand — primarily in the contract market and largely in line with seasonal expectations — kept truckload linehaul rates virtually flat from August as routing guides improved and capacity conditions loosened. Even so, rates remain near an elevated floor and well above year-ago levels heading into the Q4 peak season.
One notable difference in the current pricing cycle is the lack of meaningful capacity expansion that would normally follow stronger rates. Higher barriers to entry and rising operating costs likely contribute. Still, the elevated rate floor heading into Q4 leaves the market more susceptible to sharper increases from holiday demand, winter weather or renewed fuel volatility, even if underlying freight demand remains relatively soft.
Across the broader economy, several key areas continue to support freight activity, most notably resilient consumer spending, significant data center investment and record import volumes. However, downside risks to the durability of those drivers are increasing as persistent inflation, elevated interest rates and prolonged strength in energy prices continue to weaken the economic backdrop.
Industry Overview
September Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change | Seq% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +46.8 p | +4.2 p |
| Fuel Prices | +67.8 p | +15.2 p |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | -9.5 q | +11.3 p |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | -1.6 q | -0.5 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +11.3 p | +0.7 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | +2.1 p | +5.6 p |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +18.7 p | +5.8 p |
*Report released on 9/22/2026
**Report released on 9/14/2026
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- Economic growth remained supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-related investment and continued manufacturing expansion despite growing signs of labor market softening.
- Housing activity continued to drag on freight-sensitive sectors, as construction and residential market indicators remained historically weak. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Linehaul rates remained largely stable in September as seasonal demand softened, but all-in transportation costs reached record highs due to surging diesel prices.
- Contract and spot rates continue to hold well above year-ago levels, highlighting the market's elevated pricing floor despite weaker freight demand. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Truckload demand weakened further in September as contract volumes continue to shift toward the more cost-advantageous rail sector.
- Strong import volumes, inventory replenishment and continued investment in manufacturing and data centers remain key supports for freight demand. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- Capacity conditions eased modestly in September but remain historically tight, with active truck utilization expected to remain near peak levels through year-end.
- Higher operating costs and equipment expenses continue to discourage meaningful fleet expansion despite stronger truckload rates. Continue reading...