Executive Summary
The truckload market's cyclical recovery gained further momentum in June as capacity tightened and freight rates accelerated across nearly all equipment segments. Spot rates continued to outpace contract pricing, pushing the contract-to-spot spread into negative territory for the first time since early 2022 and increasing pressure on contractual transportation costs. Demand fundamentals remained constructive, supported by manufacturing expansion, healthy consumer spending and early signs of peak-season inventory positioning, though overall volume growth remained measured.
Market conditions are expected to remain favorable for carriers through the second half of the year as elevated utilization, rising rejection rates and ongoing supply-side constraints limit available capacity. While economic uncertainty tied to trade policy, inflation and housing activity persists, freight fundamentals continue to improve gradually. As a result, shippers should anticipate continued pricing pressure, reduced routing guide compliance and increased contract rate negotiations as the market progresses further into a carrier-led cycle.
Industry Overview
June Key Figures (YoY)
| Truck Data Points | YoY% Change | Seq% Change |
| DAT Spot Rates (incl. FSC) | +48.5 p | +3.8 p |
| Fuel Prices | +39.6 p | -10.3q |
| ACT Class 8 Preliminary Orders | +234.0 p | +18.5 p |
| ATA NSA Truck Tonnage* | +0.6 p | -2.9 q |
| Cass Freight Index** | +6.9 p | +0.4 p |
| Cass Freight Shipments | -1.2 q | +3.0 p |
| Cass Freight Expenditures | +7.5 p | +5.3 p |
*Report released on 6/23/2026
**Report released on 6/15/2026
Main Takeaways
U.S. Economy
- U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for a sixth consecutive month in June, supported by healthy order activity, lean customer inventories and continued strength in domestic demand despite moderating growth rates.
- Consumer spending remained an economic bright spot, offsetting ongoing weakness in housing, softer export demand and growing uncertainty surrounding trade and labor market conditions. Continue reading...
Truckload Rates
- Spot truckload rates continued to surge in June, pushing market pricing above contract rates for the first time in more than four years.
- Tightening capacity conditions and rising carrier utilization are expected to support further increases in contract rates through the remainder of 2026. Continue reading...
Truckload Demand
- Freight demand remained stable in June, supported by recovering contract volumes, resilient import activity and continued strength in consumer spending.
- Growing signs of inventory replenishment and import front-loading could support freight volumes later this year, though intermodal competition may limit truckload market upside. Continue reading...
Truckload Supply
- Tender rejection rates continued to rise in June as carrier utilization remained elevated, signaling ongoing tightness in truckload capacity.
- Strong Class 8 tractor orders reflect growing carrier confidence, though new equipment is unlikely to meaningfully ease capacity constraints in the near term. Continue reading...